Arithmetic and Radical Jihadism
If you choose to engage the question of whether we are winning the Global War on Terrorism you may want to consider the fact that there are approximately 1.6 billion Muslims in the world. Sixty two percent of them are under the age of thirty. Many of these young Muslims are disenfranchised, unemployed, repressed and angry or frustrated by totalitarian governments and bleak futures. Sixty two percent of 1.6 billion is about one billion. Half of these are men; 500 million men. Assuming that just one percent of these angry young men might be inclined toward radical jihadism, that gives five million potential jihadists. The US military response to organized radical jihadism is to attempt to disrupt, degrade , and destroy these organizations. Executing this military response requires killing, capturing, or seriously wounding individual jihadists. The US government estimates that the air campaign against ISIS has killed three to five thousand ISIS fighters and that ISIS is recruiting new fighters at a faster rate than we are killing them.
Do the math.
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